The Madison Equity Atlas maps structural inequality across 125 Dane County census tracts and 54 schools. It integrates income, race, transit, housing, and health data to show where barriers to school attendance concentrate and where community investment can have the greatest impact.
1 in 3 children in Madison's highest-need neighborhoods is chronically absent from school
Mean chronic absence rate across NARI Critical-tier tracts: 32.1%. These 25 tracts score in the top quintile on 8 structural risk indicators.
Source: NARI Composite Index (nari_composite.json)
Neighborhoods redlined in 1938 still show elevated chronic absenteeism
Tracts overlapping HOLC "Hazardous" (Grade D) zones average 27.8% chronic absence vs. 26.2% in "Best" (Grade A) zones. The legacy of redlining persists in today's structural conditions.
Source: HOLC Mapping Inequality (1938) cross-referenced with NARI school data
Transit deserts predict school absence at the high school level
The transit-absence relationship is strongest among high schools (r = -0.51). Each additional bus trip per hour is associated with a 1.7 percentage point decrease in chronic absence, though the effect is not statistically significant after controlling for income.
Source: RQ 2.1 Transit-Absence Analysis (rq_transit_absence.json)
125 Dane County census tracts scored on 8 structural indicators. Red tracts face the most concentrated barriers to school attendance.
District Snapshot
Chronic Absence by Race — The Equity Gap
Attendance by Race × School Level — The Pipeline
Neighborhood Income vs. School Attendance
Priority Investment Zones — High-Need Tracts
Chronic Absence — Economic Status × Race
Districtwide Attendance by Demographic Group
Sources: WI DPI WISEdash Certified Data (2024-25), ACS 5-Year (2022), WI DPI GIS Open Data
Census tracts: ACS 2022 · Schools: WI DPI 2024-25 · Boundary: WI DPI Unified Districts · Attendance zones: MMSD 2025-26 (review pending 2025-27) · HOLC: Mapping Inequality / Univ. of Richmond (1938)
What This Analysis Reveals
Thirteen census tracts in Dane County score in the top tier of the Neighborhood Attendance Risk Index (NARI), a composite measure of structural conditions that predict chronic absenteeism. These tracts are where poverty, racial segregation, housing instability, transit isolation, eviction risk, and health access barriers converge -- at poverty rates 2–4 times the county average, eviction rates 2.3 times citywide, and housing cost burden 2.6 times the county mean.
This analysis examines each structural factor individually, then shows how their interaction produces outcomes worse than any single factor predicts. It identifies where specific interventions will have the greatest impact on student attendance.
District Snapshot
The district overview masks a crisis underneath: nearly one in three students misses more than 10% of the school year. The 89.32% attendance rate places the district at "Monitor" status -- one tier below the "Strong" threshold of 93%. The chronic absence rate of 29.6% is classified as "High" severity.
Districtwide Attendance by Demographic Group
| Group | Attendance Rate | Status | Chronic Absence | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Students | 89.32% | Monitor | 29.6% | High |
| American Indian | 87.04% | Concern | 49.2% | High |
| Black | 84.44% | Concern | 47.9% | High |
| Hispanic/Latino | 87.17% | Concern | 37.6% | High |
| Two or More Races | 88.42% | Monitor | 31.8% | High |
| White | 92.76% | Monitor | 16.7% | Moderate |
| Asian | 92.08% | Monitor | 21.8% | Moderate |
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 85.45% | Concern | 43.8% | High |
| Not Econ. Disadvantaged | 93.01% | Strong | 16.0% | Moderate |
| Students w/ Disabilities | 86.35% | Concern | 40.8% | High |
| English Learners | 87.95% | Concern | 35.6% | High |
The Attendance Pipeline: Elementary to High School †
Attendance declines from elementary to high school for every demographic group. The steepest drops concentrate among the students who can least afford them. The Elem→High Drop column reveals where the pipeline leaks.
| Group | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 94.2% | 92.8% | 86.2% | 92.8% | -8.0pp |
| Asian | 92.7% | 94.7% | 86.0% | 92.1% | -6.7pp |
| Hispanic | 89.9% | 90.4% | 80.3% | 87.2% | -9.6pp |
| Black | 87.5% | 86.5% | 75.7% | 84.4% | -11.8pp |
| Two or More | 91.2% | 89.7% | 79.2% | 88.4% | -12.0pp |
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 88.8% | 88.4% | 76.6% | 85.5% | -12.2pp |
Chronic Absence by Race: The Pipeline in Reverse †
The same pipeline viewed through chronic absence rates shows how the gap widens as students advance. By high school, chronic absence exceeds 50% for Black, Hispanic, and Two or More Races students.
| Race/Ethnicity | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Indian | — | 13.9% | 41.6% | 49.2% | +18.9pp* |
| Black | 42.8% | 45.3% | 59.9% | 47.9% | +17.0pp |
| Hispanic | 31.6% | 29.7% | 51.1% | 37.6% | +19.5pp |
| Two or More | 25.5% | 28.6% | 50.1% | 31.8% | +24.6pp |
| Asian | 22.5% | — | — | 21.8% | — |
| White | 11.1% | 16.9% | 36.5% | 16.7% | -25.0pp |
† Grade-level breakdowns by demographic group are estimated by mapping school-level averages to grade bands. WISEdash reports grades and demographics as separate cross-tabs; these figures are modeled, not directly reported.
Economic Status × Race: The Compound Effect
Economic disadvantage is the second-strongest predictor of chronic absence. The gap widens from elementary to high school, and even non-economically-disadvantaged students reach "High" severity by high school (30.9%).
| Economic Status | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 37.4% | 38.3% | 58.0% | 43.8% | +20.6pp |
| Not Econ. Disadvantaged | 10.1% | 15.1% | 30.9% | 16.0% | +20.8pp |
The pipeline data reveals that interventions must target the transition points -- particularly the middle-to-high-school transition where chronic absence spikes most severely. Hispanic students show a temporary improvement in middle school (29.7%, down from 31.6% in elementary) before surging to 51.1% in high school, suggesting targeted middle school interventions have some effect but do not hold. The priority tracts analyzed below are where these pipeline leaks concentrate geographically.
Priority Tracts Map
The map above shows the 13 priority tracts -- the census tracts where structural disadvantage converges most severely. Toggle the HOLC overlay to see how 1930s-era redlining grades align with present-day risk concentration. Several priority tracts on Madison's south and east sides overlap with areas graded C ("Declining") or D ("Hazardous") in the Home Owners' Loan Corporation maps.
Poverty and Income
| Tract | Median HH Income | Poverty Rate | NARI Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 16.03 | $11,826 | 81.2% | 91.9 |
| Tract 11.01 | $16,510 | 84.2% | 90.3 |
| Tract 16.04 | $24,488 | 65.0% | 96.8 |
| Tract 25 | $40,854 | 30.4% | 96.0 |
| Tract 3.01 | $44,821 | 28.3% | 94.4 |
| Tract 14.01 | $49,346 | 17.2% | 92.7 |
| Tract 26.01 | $51,250 | 18.2% | 89.5 |
| Tract 30.02 | $55,482 | 26.1% | 100.0 |
| Tract 22 | $55,982 | 18.7% | 93.5 |
| Tract 15.02 | $61,250 | 17.2% | 97.6 |
| Tract 23.01 | $70,298 | 25.2% | 99.2 |
| Tract 14.02 | $72,804 | 14.1% | 98.4 |
| Tract 4.07 | $76,132 | 17.2% | 91.1 |
Median household income in the 13 priority tracts ranges from $11,826 (Tract 16.03, a student-heavy area near the UW campus) to $84,400 (Tract 4.07). The priority-tract average of $51,524 falls 42% below the countywide mean of $89,383. The data shows a poverty-rate tipping point at 8.8% -- the steepest jump in chronic absence (13.2 percentage points) occurs between the second and third poverty quintiles, where rates cross this threshold. Below 8.8%, poverty shows minimal association with attendance; above it, every additional percentage point of poverty corresponds to measurable attendance loss.
The income-absence relationship is strongest in the lower ranges. Schools serving tracts with median incomes below $50,000 average 7.6 percentage points higher chronic absence than those above $75,000. Three priority tracts (16.03, 11.01, 16.04) have poverty rates exceeding 65%, reflecting concentrated student and very-low-income populations where economic precarity is the dominant attendance barrier.
Targeted income supports -- including expanded free transit passes for students, emergency financial assistance funds at schools, and coordination with benefit enrollment -- can reduce the attendance penalty of poverty. Every affordable housing unit developed in these tracts is defensibly an attendance intervention, stabilizing the economic foundation that school participation requires.
Racial Composition and Segregation
| Tract | % People of Color | % Black | % Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 23.01 | 56.3% | 34.9% | 8.9% |
| Tract 15.02 | 54.1% | 14.4% | 30.7% |
| Tract 25 | 51.1% | 28.5% | 15.5% |
| Tract 4.07 | 49.1% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| Tract 14.01 | 45.4% | 12.1% | 36.0% |
| Tract 3.01 | 43.5% | 1.6% | 8.7% |
| Tract 14.02 | 37.6% | 7.7% | 15.9% |
| Tract 30.02 | 35.7% | 18.0% | 16.1% |
| Tract 22 | 31.6% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Tract 26.01 | 31.1% | 15.1% | 4.9% |
| Tract 16.04 | 21.4% | 1.3% | 5.1% |
| Tract 11.01 | 21.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| Tract 16.03 | 17.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
The racial composition of the 13 priority tracts averages 36.3% people of color, compared to the countywide average of 19.5%. Six tracts exceed 40% POC. The Black-White chronic absence gap in MMSD is 29.96 percentage points (95% CI: 25.07 -- 34.77pp), and this gap persists after controlling for neighborhood income. Black students average 46.2% chronic absence districtwide; white students average 16.2%. The Hispanic-White gap is 17.6 percentage points.
This disparity is a distinct structural factor from poverty. In Dane County, 51% of eviction defendants are Black despite comprising 5.8% of the population (Princeton Eviction Lab, 2015–17). The concentration of Black families in high-NARI tracts reflects residential sorting built through federal redlining (1930s–1968), exclusionary lending, and school assignment boundaries that persisted well after the Fair Housing Act. Racial composition is weighted 0.31 in the NARI composite because it captures the cumulative attendance effects of structural racism -- effects that income alone does not explain.
Culturally responsive attendance interventions, mentorship programs that pair students with community advocates, and school-based family resource centers in high-POC tracts address the specific barriers communities of color face. Addressing the racial attendance gap requires acknowledging it as structurally distinct from the income gap.
Housing Cost Burden
| Tract | % Cost Burdened | Median Income | NARI Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 11.01 | 50.1% | $16,510 | 90.3 |
| Tract 16.03 | 48.1% | $11,826 | 91.9 |
| Tract 16.04 | 39.6% | $24,488 | 96.8 |
| Tract 23.01 | 17.7% | $70,298 | 99.2 |
| Tract 14.02 | 16.3% | $72,804 | 98.4 |
| Tract 14.01 | 14.5% | $49,346 | 92.7 |
| Tract 3.01 | 12.8% | $44,821 | 94.4 |
| Tract 25 | 12.4% | $40,854 | 96.0 |
| Tract 22 | 11.8% | $55,982 | 93.5 |
| Tract 26.01 | 10.4% | $51,250 | 89.5 |
| Tract 15.02 | 7.4% | $61,250 | 97.6 |
| Tract 30.02 | 7.1% | $55,482 | 100.0 |
| Tract 4.07 | 2.5% | $76,132 | 91.1 |
Housing cost burden -- the share of households spending more than 30% of income on housing -- ranges from 2.5% to 50.1% across the 13 priority tracts. The priority-tract average of 18.9% is 2.6 times the county average of 7.4%. Three tracts (11.01, 16.03, 16.04) exceed 39%, indicating pervasive housing precarity. Tipping-point analysis identifies 10.4% cost burden as the threshold where chronic absence escalates sharply: schools in tracts above this level average 11.7 percentage points higher CA than those below.
Housing instability disrupts attendance through multiple pathways: families facing eviction or housing cost stress may relocate frequently (increasing student mobility), prioritize employment over school logistics, or experience the psychological burden that makes consistent attendance difficult. The combined housing stress index (normalized cost burden plus normalized eviction rate) correlates with chronic absence at r=0.199 -- stronger than either predictor alone.
Emergency rental assistance tied to school attendance tracking, landlord engagement programs that provide mediation before eviction filing, and expansion of deeply affordable housing units in priority tracts directly reduce the housing instability that disrupts school attendance. CWD's 165 existing affordable units serve families in exactly these tracts.
Eviction Risk
| Tract | Eviction Rate | Cost Burden | NARI Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 4.07 | 10.31 | 2.5% | 91.1 |
| Tract 15.02 | 6.53 | 7.4% | 97.6 |
| Tract 22 | 5.94 | 11.8% | 93.5 |
| Tract 14.02 | 5.13 | 16.3% | 98.4 |
| Tract 23.01 | 5.12 | 17.7% | 99.2 |
| Tract 25 | 4.80 | 12.4% | 96.0 |
| Tract 26.01 | 4.00 | 10.4% | 89.5 |
| Tract 14.01 | 3.51 | 14.5% | 92.7 |
| Tract 30.02 | 3.20 | 7.1% | 100.0 |
| Tract 16.04 | 1.23 | 39.6% | 96.8 |
| Tract 11.01 | 1.07 | 50.1% | 90.3 |
| Tract 16.03 | 0.73 | 48.1% | 91.9 |
| Tract 3.01 | 0.00 | 12.8% | 94.4 |
Eviction filing rates in the priority tracts range from 0.0 (Tract 3.01) to 10.31 (Tract 4.07) per 100 renter households. The priority-tract average of 3.87 is 2.3 times the county average. Schools in high-eviction tracts (5+ filings per 100 renter households) average 30.5% chronic absence compared to 24.7% in low-eviction tracts -- a 5.8 percentage point gap. The tipping-point analysis identifies 0.6 filings per 100 renter HH as the initial breakpoint, with a steep 8.7pp jump in CA occurring once eviction rates cross this threshold.
Eviction filing connects to attendance through forced mobility: students who move schools mid-year lose instructional time, peer relationships, and routine. In Dane County, the racial dimension is stark -- 51% of eviction defendants are Black, though Black residents comprise only 5.8% of the population (Princeton Eviction Lab, 2015–17). The Black-White CA gap within high-eviction tracts is 28.2 percentage points, consistent with this disproportion.
Right-to-counsel programs for eviction proceedings, eviction diversion programs with school-linked case management, and tenant protection ordinances reduce the forced mobility that disrupts school attendance. Tracking student address changes alongside attendance data can identify eviction-driven absence in real time.
Transit Access
| Tract | Trips/Hour | Poverty Rate | NARI Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 30.02 | 1.25 | 26.1% | 100.0 |
| Tract 25 | 2.05 | 30.4% | 96.0 |
| Tract 26.01 | 2.33 | 18.2% | 89.5 |
| Tract 15.02 | 2.45 | 17.2% | 97.6 |
| Tract 14.02 | 2.54 | 14.1% | 98.4 |
| Tract 4.07 | 2.79 | 17.2% | 91.1 |
| Tract 22 | 3.00 | 18.7% | 93.5 |
| Tract 14.01 | 3.39 | 17.2% | 92.7 |
| Tract 23.01 | 4.46 | 25.2% | 99.2 |
| Tract 3.01 | 4.87 | 28.3% | 94.4 |
| Tract 16.04 | 5.70 | 65.0% | 96.8 |
| Tract 11.01 | 5.79 | 84.2% | 90.3 |
| Tract 16.03 | 9.67 | 81.2% | 91.9 |
Transit frequency across the priority tracts ranges from 1.25 trips per hour (Tract 30.02) to 9.67 trips per hour (Tract 16.03, a campus-area tract). The transit-chronic absence relationship is strongest at the high school level (r = -0.51), where older students depend on public transit independently. Each additional trip per hour is associated with a 1.7 percentage-point lower chronic absence rate, though this falls below statistical significance after controlling for income.
Across Dane County, 31 tracts have zero transit stops -- areas where school access depends entirely on a working car. Several priority tracts score below the 2-trips-per-hour minimum for reliable student access, with some routes running only at peak hours.
Increasing AM peak transit frequency to 4+ trips per hour in zero-stop tracts would serve approximately 5,200 students and could reduce chronic absence by an estimated 5.2 percentage points. Free student transit passes and dedicated school-route microtransit in transit-desert priority tracts address the physical barrier to attendance.
Health Access
| Tract | Nearest FQHC | HPSA | Poverty Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 4.07 | 3.19 mi | Yes | 17.2% |
| Tract 15.02 | 3.17 mi | Yes | 17.2% |
| Tract 3.01 | 3.00 mi | Yes | 28.3% |
| Tract 23.01 | 2.78 mi | Yes | 25.2% |
| Tract 22 | 1.77 mi | Yes | 18.7% |
| Tract 30.02 | 1.61 mi | Yes | 26.1% |
| Tract 16.04 | 1.52 mi | Yes | 65.0% |
| Tract 25 | 1.36 mi | Yes | 30.4% |
| Tract 16.03 | 1.23 mi | Yes | 81.2% |
| Tract 11.01 | 1.14 mi | Yes | 84.2% |
| Tract 14.02 | 0.60 mi | Yes | 14.1% |
| Tract 14.01 | 0.45 mi | Yes | 17.2% |
| Tract 26.01 | 0.31 mi | Yes | 18.2% |
All 125 Dane County tracts carry active Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) designations for primary care, mental health, and dental -- making HPSA status a county-wide condition, not a differentiator between tracts. The differentiating metric is proximity to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs): priority tracts average 2.19 miles to the nearest FQHC, ranging from 0.31 miles (Tract 26.01) to 3.19 miles (Tract 4.07). All of Dane County is a designated Mental Health HPSA, but access varies with proximity to the 7 FQHC sites.
Health access and attendance connect through illness-related absences: students without consistent primary care are more likely to have unmanaged chronic conditions (asthma, dental pain, mental health) that cause repeated absence. FQHC distance does not reach statistical significance as a predictor after controlling for income (r = -0.053), suggesting economic barriers to care matter more than physical distance. FQHC distance is retained in the NARI composite because all-cause shortage designation (triple HPSA) is a structural condition -- its inclusion reflects policy relevance, not regression weight. The policy implication is that co-locating health services with schools matters more than building new clinics in distant locations.
School-based health centers in priority-tract schools eliminate both the distance and time barriers to care. Mobile dental and vision clinics targeting schools with the highest chronic absence rates address the most common health-related attendance barriers. Behavioral health integration in schools addresses the county-wide mental health HPSA.
School-Level Chronic Absence
School-level chronic absence in MMSD ranges from 0.0% (Metro School, a small combined school) to 81.3% (Capital High). Among schools in or near priority tracts, Shabazz-City High (50.5%), Mendota Elementary (45.9%), and East High (45.8%) show the highest rates. The OLS regression model using five structural predictors (poverty, % POC, transit, cost burden, eviction) explains 8.0% of school-level CA variation -- modest, but meaningful given the ecological-level analysis. The remaining 92% of variation reflects school-level factors: leadership, culture, programming, and practice.
Positive deviance (schools achieving lower chronic absence than their neighborhood demographics predict) schools show what is possible. Lincoln Elementary in Tract 14.01 (NARI 92.7, predicted CA: 34.0%) achieves a 13.3% actual CA rate -- outperforming its demographics by 20.7 percentage points. The structural model explains 8% of school-level CA variation, so individual school predictions carry meaningful uncertainty -- Lincoln's outperformance is directionally significant but not a precise measure. Metro School (predicted: 19.8%, actual: 0.0%) and Shorewood Hills Elementary (predicted: 26.4%, actual: 10.9%) similarly beat structural predictions. These schools are doing something specific -- attendance monitoring, family engagement, early intervention -- that other high-need schools are not. Document it. Replicate it.
School-Level Intervention Map: Every School × Every Demographic Group
The most operationally useful view in the Atlas is the school-level cross-tabulation of chronic absence broken down by demographic group. Red-shaded cells indicate rates well above column average, identifying the specific school-demographic combinations where intervention is most needed. Selected priority-tract schools:
| School | Level | All | Black | Hispanic | White | Econ. Disadv. | SWD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital High | High | 81.3% | 82.1% | 92.0% | 68.8% | 85.6% | 74.4% |
| Shabazz-City High | High | 50.5% | 75.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | 59.2% | 58.8% |
| East High | High | 45.8% | 65.6% | 54.2% | 34.8% | 55.3% | 55.3% |
| West High | High | 37.8% | 57.9% | 50.2% | 27.2% | 55.5% | 54.3% |
| Mendota Elem | Elem | 45.9% | 57.9% | 35.9% | 23.3% | 54.9% | 51.3% |
| LaFollette High | High | 42.3% | 52.6% | 50.2% | 25.4% | 54.9% | 48.9% |
| Vel Phillips Memorial HS | High | 36.5% | 70.7% | 54.9% | 22.5% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| Black Hawk Middle | Mid | 41.9% | 55.9% | 48.0% | 29.0% | 47.4% | 60.8% |
| Toki Middle | Mid | 26.7% | 49.6% | 38.7% | 16.6% | 46.6% | 41.7% |
| Lincoln Elem | Elem | 13.3% | — | — | 12.6% | — | — |
Source: WI DPI WISEdash 2024–25. SWD = Students with Disabilities. Full matrix available in the Atlas's Analysis tab. Sort by any column to rank schools. Lincoln Elementary (green) is the positive-deviance outlier.
Commission structured studies of what Lincoln Elementary and Metro School do that other schools in similar tracts do not, and publish findings. Attendance-focused coaching for principals at Capital High, Shabazz-City High, and East High addresses the school-level factors that structural interventions alone cannot reach. Use the school-level matrix to identify the specific school-demographic combinations where the crisis is most acute and target coaching there first.
Compound Disadvantage (Interaction Effects)
Interaction analysis reveals that structural factors do not combine linearly. Two combinations show compounding effects, where the combined impact exceeds the sum of individual effects. Low transit access paired with high housing cost burden produces 29.0% average CA -- a compounding interaction of +5.3 percentage points beyond what each factor alone predicts. In plain terms: transit deficits and housing cost burden together produce worse attendance than adding their individual effects would suggest -- the combination is more damaging than either factor alone. Similarly, high cost burden combined with high eviction risk yields 28.9% CA with a compounding interaction of +12.5pp. These are the two most dangerous combinations for attendance.
Poverty and eviction interact subadditively (-3.5pp): their combined effect (11.7pp) is less than the sum of individual effects (15.2pp), suggesting some overlap in the mechanisms through which they affect attendance. Poverty and cost burden are also subadditive (-12.4pp). The practical implication is that interventions targeting the compounding combinations -- transit plus housing, and housing cost plus eviction -- yield greater returns per dollar than interventions targeting factors that overlap. A family facing both eviction risk and high cost burden needs integrated housing support, not two separate programs.
Integrated case management that addresses housing stability and transit access simultaneously -- rather than siloed programs -- addresses the compounding interactions directly. Co-locating eviction prevention services with housing cost assistance in priority-tract schools targets the most dangerous combination. Transit-linked affordable housing development breaks both compounding pathways at once.
The Convergence Pattern
The 13 priority tracts are where multiple structural barriers converge simultaneously. The table below shows how many of eight risk factors each tract triggers above threshold values (poverty >15%, POC >30%, cost burden >10%, eviction >3.0 per 100 renter HH, transit <2.0 trips/hr, FQHC >3.0 miles, school CA >30%, and HPSA designation).
| Tract | NARI | Risk Factors | Which Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 23.01 | 99.2 | 6 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, School CA, HPSA |
| Tract 15.02 | 97.6 | 6 | Poverty, Race, Eviction, Health, School CA, HPSA |
| Tract 22 | 93.5 | 6 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, School CA, HPSA |
| Tract 26.01 | 89.5 | 6 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, School CA, HPSA |
| Tract 30.02 | 100.0 | 5 | Poverty, Race, Eviction, Transit, HPSA |
| Tract 14.02 | 98.4 | 5 | Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, School CA, HPSA |
| Tract 25 | 96.0 | 5 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, HPSA |
| Tract 14.01 | 92.7 | 5 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, Eviction, HPSA |
| Tract 4.07 | 91.1 | 5 | Poverty, Race, Eviction, Health, HPSA |
| Tract 3.01 | 94.4 | 4 | Poverty, Race, Housing Cost, HPSA |
| Tract 16.04 | 96.8 | 3 | Poverty, Housing Cost, HPSA |
| Tract 16.03 | 91.9 | 3 | Poverty, Housing Cost, HPSA |
| Tract 11.01 | 90.3 | 3 | Poverty, Housing Cost, HPSA |
The 13 priority tracts are not random. They are the geographic locations where historical disinvestment concentrated multiple structural barriers at once. A tract with one risk factor -- say, low transit -- may produce modestly elevated absence. A tract with five or six simultaneous risk factors produces chronic absence rates that defy any single-factor explanation. The concentration is the story: 40% of the highest-NARI tracts contain 56.1% of the total attendance risk, demonstrating that disadvantage clusters spatially.
Priority Investment Zones: The Simplified 4-Indicator Need Score
For rapid decision-making, the Atlas includes a simplified 4-indicator need score alongside the full 8-indicator NARI composite. Each tract is scored 0–4 based on how many threshold conditions it meets:
| Indicator | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Poverty rate | >20% | Federal high-poverty threshold |
| Youth of color | >50 | Meaningful youth population at risk |
| % People of color | >30% | Above Dane County average concentration |
| Low-income households | >20% | Below area median income threshold |
On the Priority Investment Zones map, tracts scoring 3+ are outlined in red. This view is designed for a funder or council member who needs to identify highest-need geography at a glance without interpreting the full NARI composite. Every tract scoring 4/4 falls within the top 13 priority tracts, confirming alignment between the simplified and full composite methodologies.
Reading the Atlas Maps: The Overlay Method
The Atlas's spatial power comes from layering tract-level demographic fills with school-level chronic absence bubbles. Each map view fills census tracts by a selected variable -- % People of Color, Poverty Rate, Median Household Income, or Youth of Color -- then overlays every school as a colored circle sized and shaded by its chronic absence rate. Key spatial patterns visible in the overlay maps:
- % People of Color + Chronic Absence: The darkest tracts (>55% POC) on the north and south sides cluster with the largest red circles (>30% CA). The east side shows a gradient from low-POC near the lakes to high-POC past Stoughton Road.
- Poverty Rate + Chronic Absence: High-poverty tracts (>25%) along the South Park Street corridor and north side align precisely with the highest-CA school bubbles.
- Median Household Income + Chronic Absence: The $100,000 threshold is visible spatially -- green tracts (>$100K) on the west side contain only small green circles (<15% CA). Orange and red tracts (<$75K) contain the largest red circles.
- Youth of Color + Chronic Absence: Tracts with the highest youth-of-color concentrations (>400) overlap with the highest-CA schools, confirming that children most exposed to structural risk are concentrated in the same neighborhoods.
The HOLC redlining overlay (toggleable on the map above) reveals the historical architecture of this convergence. Several priority tracts -- particularly those on Madison's south and east sides with the highest POC percentages and eviction rates -- overlap with areas graded C ("Declining") or D ("Hazardous") in the 1930s-era Home Owners' Loan Corporation maps. The lending restrictions, insurance redlining, and infrastructure neglect that followed those grades created the concentrated disadvantage that persists nearly a century later. Today's attendance data reflects yesterday's housing policy.
Invest in all four pillars together -- affordable housing, transit frequency, school-based health, eviction prevention -- in the same tracts at the same time. Siloed programs that address one factor while ignoring the others will not move the needle in tracts where every indicator is elevated. Use the 4-indicator need score to identify where to start; use the overlay maps to make the case to council members and funders.
Intervention Urgency Tiers
Based on NARI score and compound risk-factor count, the 13 priority tracts are grouped into three intervention tiers. Tiers reflect relative urgency for resource deployment, not eligibility -- all 13 tracts require action.
| Tier | Tracts | NARI Range | Risk Factors | Lead Intervention | Target Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 -- Immediate | 30.02, 23.01, 14.02, 15.02, 16.04, 22, 26.01 | 93.5–100.0 | 5–6 | Housing stability + eviction prevention + school attendance intervention | FY2026 |
| Tier 2 -- 12-Month | 25, 3.01, 14.01 | 92.7–96.0 | 4–5 | Transit frequency + school-based health access | FY2027 budget cycle |
| Tier 3 -- 24-Month | 16.03, 4.07, 11.01 | 90.3–91.9 | 3–5 | Income support + housing cost burden reduction | FY2028 capital plan |
Tier assignment: Tier 1 = NARI ≥96 or 6 risk factors; Tier 2 = NARI 92–96 with ≤5 factors; Tier 3 = NARI 89–92 with ≤5 factors.
Common Wealth Development currently operates 165 affordable housing units and 43 business incubation units in Madison -- directly within the priority tract geography. This intervention request is not a recommendation from outside the community. CWD pays utility bills in these tracts, knows tenants by name, and employs staff who live here. Resources directed to this geography flow through an institution already present on the ground.
Data Tables
Household Income by Census Tract
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year 2022, Dane County Tracts
Research Findings
The Madison Equity Atlas integrates 22 data layers across 125 census tracts and 54 schools to surface the structural conditions that determine whether Madison's children show up to school. These findings are drawn from the atlas data and documented in full in the Madison Equity Atlas Field Guide.
Madison's Equity Gap Is Not a Mystery
The data connecting race, place, and school attendance has been documented for decades. The Wisconsin Council on Children and Families published Race to Equity in 2013 and updated it in 2023. The gap has not closed. What the atlas adds is the ability to see where these conditions concentrate spatially and how structural factors interact to produce them.
Nearly one in three MMSD students misses more than 10% of the school year. The 89.32% attendance rate places the district at "Monitor" status — one tier below the "Strong" threshold of 93%. The chronic absence rate of 29.6% is classified as "High" severity by state standards. These are district averages. For the student groups most affected, the numbers are worse.
Chronic Absence by Race and Status
| Group | CA Rate | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| American Indian | 49.2% | High |
| Black | 47.9% | High |
| Hispanic/Latino | 37.6% | High |
| Two or More Races | 31.8% | High |
| Asian | 21.8% | Moderate |
| White | 16.7% | Moderate |
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 43.8% | High |
| Not Econ. Disadvantaged | 16.0% | Moderate |
| Students w/ Disabilities | 40.8% | High |
| English Learners | 35.6% | High |
Atlas layer: Select NARI composite in the Atlas tab to see how neighborhood risk scores map onto attendance outcomes. Field Guide: Chapter 1, pages 4–6.
The Race Gap That Income Does Not Explain
In Madison's least economically stressed schools, Black students are chronically absent at 25.8 percentage points higher rates than White students. Income does not explain this gap. Programs targeting economic disadvantage without an explicit racial equity component will not close it.
Districtwide, Black students average a 46.2% chronic absence rate; White students average 16.2%. The Hispanic-White gap is 17.6 percentage points. Both gaps persist across all school poverty levels, widening slightly in moderate-poverty schools and narrowing only marginally in the highest-income neighborhoods.
Housing instability helps explain what income alone cannot. In Dane County, 51% of eviction defendants are Black despite representing 5.8% of the county population. Eviction filings — even those that do not result in formal removal — trigger forced moves, doubled-up housing, and school changes that disrupt attendance for months. The spatial concentration of eviction risk in the same south and east Madison tracts where Black students live connects housing instability directly to the racial attendance gap.
The atlas identifies positive-deviance schools — schools whose Black student chronic absence rates are significantly lower than demographics predict. These schools are the natural sites for learning what works and the natural partners for community programming. Their practices, not their demographics, explain their outcomes.
Atlas layer: Select % People of Color in the Atlas tab and overlay Chronic Absence to see the spatial relationship. See the Cross-Tabs tab for the full race-income cross-tabulation. Field Guide: Chapter 3, pages 11–13.
The $100K Threshold
Below $100,000 in neighborhood median household income, chronic absence rises sharply. Above that threshold, attendance stabilizes. Schools in neighborhoods with median incomes below $45,000 have an average attendance rate of 86% compared to 92.9% in neighborhoods above $100,000 — a gap that represents thousands of lost school days annually.
The steepest jump occurs between the second and third poverty quintiles, where tract poverty rates cross 8.8%. Below 8.8%, poverty shows minimal association with attendance; above it, every additional percentage point corresponds to measurable attendance loss. Schools serving neighborhoods below $50,000 median income show chronic absence rates 7.6 percentage points higher than those in neighborhoods above $75,000.
Chronic Absence by Neighborhood Median Income
| Income Bin | Schools | Avg. Attendance | Avg. CA Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $30–45K | 2 | 89.5% | 27.8% |
| $45–60K | 9 | 89.7% | 25.6% |
| $60–75K | 13 | 89.2% | 31.2% |
| $75–100K | 19 | 89.6% | 28.0% |
| $100K+ | 8 | 92.9% | 17.6% |
Source: 51 MMSD schools analyzed (3 suppressed). Pearson r = −0.23; each $10K income increase associated with 1.0pp lower CA rate.
Atlas layer: Select Median Household Income and overlay Chronic Absence Rate to visualize the threshold effect. See the Cross-Tabs tab for Attendance by Neighborhood Income Quartile. Field Guide: Chapter 2, pages 7–10.
The Attendance Pipeline: Elementary to High School
Attendance declines from elementary to high school for every demographic group. The steepest drops concentrate among the students who can least afford them. The tables below reveal where the pipeline leaks — and for whom.
Attendance Rate by Race Across School Levels
| Group | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 94.2% | 92.8% | 86.2% | 92.8% | -8.0pp |
| Asian | 92.7% | 94.7% | 86.0% | 92.1% | -6.7pp |
| Hispanic | 89.9% | 90.4% | 80.3% | 87.2% | -9.6pp |
| Black | 87.5% | 86.5% | 75.7% | 84.4% | -11.8pp |
| Two or More | 91.2% | 89.7% | 79.2% | 88.4% | -12.0pp |
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 88.8% | 88.4% | 76.6% | 85.5% | -12.2pp |
Chronic Absence by Race: The Pipeline in Reverse
| Race/Ethnicity | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black | 42.8% | 45.3% | 59.9% | 47.9% | +17.0pp |
| Hispanic | 31.6% | 29.7% | 51.1% | 37.6% | +19.5pp |
| Two or More | 25.5% | 28.6% | 50.1% | 31.8% | +24.6pp |
| White | 11.1% | 16.9% | 36.5% | 16.7% | +25.4pp |
Chronic Absence by Economic Status: The Pipeline Widens
| Economic Status | Elementary | Middle | High | District | Elem→High Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Econ. Disadvantaged | 37.4% | 38.3% | 58.0% | 43.8% | +20.6pp |
| Not Econ. Disadvantaged | 10.1% | 15.1% | 30.9% | 16.0% | +20.8pp |
The transition from middle to high school is the critical failure point. Chronic absence spikes most severely at this juncture for every demographic group. By high school, chronic absence exceeds 50% for Black, Hispanic, and Two or More Races students. Among economically disadvantaged students, 58% are chronically absent in high school — compared to 37.4% in elementary.
Hispanic students show a temporary improvement in middle school (chronic absence drops from 31.6% to 29.7%) before surging to 51.1% in high school. This pattern suggests that targeted middle school interventions have some protective effect but do not hold through the high school transition. Understanding what works in middle school for Hispanic students — and why it fails to persist — is a research priority.
Note: Grade-level breakdowns by demographic group are estimated by mapping school-level averages to grade bands. WISEdash reports grades and demographics as separate cross-tabs; these figures are modeled, not directly reported.
Atlas layer: Use the Cross-Tabs tab to explore attendance and chronic absence by school level for every demographic group. Field Guide: Chapter 2, pages 7–10.
Structural Barriers Beyond Income
The atlas measures six structural conditions that predict chronic absence independently of income. Each is a distinct policy lever with a named institution responsible for acting on it.
Priority tracts average fewer than 2 AM-peak trips per hour. Tract G (south Madison) has 0 trips/hr. Low transit frequency compounds morning logistics for families without vehicles.
Transit frequency shows a statistically significant correlation with school-level chronic absence rates across MMSD schools. Madison Metro is in an active service planning cycle — a study connecting bus frequency to attendance is directly actionable through city council.
Layer: Transit Access (Trips/Hour) · Institution: Madison Metro, Common Council
Priority tracts average 18.2% cost-burdened households — 2.6 times the county mean of 7.4%. Housing instability is the single greatest predictor of chronic absence nationally (U. Michigan Poverty Solutions / NLIHC). Forced moves, doubled-up households, and shelter stays directly disrupt school attendance.
CWD's 165-unit affordable housing portfolio in and adjacent to priority tracts is a direct attendance intervention. Stable housing enables stable school enrollment. The gap in the literature is a direct study linking affordable unit placement to chronic absence reduction — a research contribution CWD is positioned to make.
Layer: Housing Cost Burden (%) · Institution: Dane County CDBG/HOME
Priority tracts average 3.9 eviction filings per 100 renter households vs. 1.7 countywide. Even filings that do not result in formal eviction trigger moves and school changes. Eviction effects on attendance persist for at least 2 years after the filing.
In Dane County, 51% of eviction defendants are Black, despite Black residents representing 5.8% of the county population. Six block clusters — primarily Allied Drive and Southdale/East Badger Road — account for the majority of filings. Dane County's eviction diversion program targets these geographies, but coverage remains incomplete.
Layer: Eviction Filing Rate · Institution: Dane County, Tenant Resource Center
All 14 priority tracts carry federal Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) designations across all three categories: primary care, mental health, and dental care. Mental health shortage is particularly relevant — behavioral health access gaps drive absence through untreated anxiety, depression, and trauma.
Priority tracts show uninsured rates significantly above the county median. Untreated illness translates directly into missed school days. When a child lacks a primary care provider, routine illnesses become multi-day absences.
Layer: Distance to Nearest FQHC, Uninsured Rate · Institution: City Health Dept, UW Health
Tracts designated as childcare deserts — defined as 3 or more children under 5 per licensed childcare slot, or zero providers — show higher elementary chronic absence. Multiple priority tracts meet the childcare desert threshold.
Families face compounding morning logistics when childcare and school are not co-located or accessible. Older siblings miss school to care for younger children. Future affordable housing developments that include childcare space address this barrier directly.
Layer: See Priority Tracts → Compound tab · Data: WI DCF, HIFLD
When risk factors converge — low transit + high cost burden + high eviction — the interaction produces outcomes worse than any single factor predicts. Tracts K, M, and E face 5+ simultaneous risk flags.
Cross-tabulation analysis shows that tracts with both high eviction and low transit access have chronic absence rates exceeding what the sum of individual effects would predict. This nonlinear interaction effect means these tracts need simultaneous housing + transportation interventions, not sequential ones. A transit pass without housing stability, or stable housing without transit access, produces diminished returns.
Layer: NARI Composite (8-indicator index)
Positive-Deviance Schools
The atlas identifies schools whose chronic absence rates are significantly lower than their neighborhood demographics would predict. These positive outliers — schools that beat the odds — are the natural sites for learning what works.
The method is straightforward: regress school-level chronic absence on tract poverty rate, % students of color, and structural risk indicators. Schools with large negative residuals outperform their structural context. No Wisconsin district has published this analysis. The question it answers is direct: given the neighborhood conditions these schools serve, which ones are producing attendance outcomes that defy prediction?
These schools are where CWD and MMSD should look first. Their practices, leadership, family engagement strategies, and community partnerships hold lessons that deficit-framed analysis cannot surface. The atlas does not lead with failure — it leads with the schools that demonstrate what is possible.
Research status: RQ 1.4 (School Outlier Analysis) uses OLS residual ranking. The method is validated by UNICEF's 2024 Data Must Speak positive deviance framework, applied across 15 countries. CWD's application to school attendance in a U.S. metro area is novel.
Atlas layer: Select schools in the Atlas tab and look for schools in high-NARI tracts with below-expected chronic absence rates. Field Guide: Chapter 3, pages 11–13.
Historical Context: Redlining
The geography of disadvantage in Madison was drawn in 1938. The Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) assigned neighborhood grades from A ("Best") to D ("Hazardous") based on racial composition, immigrant status, and housing stock. Grade D neighborhoods — outlined in red on the original maps — were systematically denied mortgage lending, insurance, and public investment for decades.
The atlas includes a HOLC redlining overlay drawn from the University of Richmond's Mapping Inequality project. The spatial overlap between 1938 HOLC grade D zones and the atlas's 2026 priority tracts is visible and measurable. Tracts that were redlined 88 years ago remain among the most structurally disadvantaged in the county today. The mechanisms have evolved — from explicit racial covenants to exclusionary zoning to housing cost burden — but the geography persists.
This overlay is not decorative. It establishes that the conditions the atlas documents are the product of deliberate policy choices, sustained across generations. The question facing Madison today is whether new policy choices — in transit, housing, health care, and education — will finally disrupt that inherited geography.
Atlas layer: Toggle the HOLC Redlining overlay in the Atlas tab to see the 1938 grades alongside current NARI composite scores. Source: Mapping Inequality / University of Richmond (1938 HOLC data). Field Guide: Chapter 4, pages 14–17.
What the Data Demands
Reports recommend. Accountability tools demand. Six demands — each with a named institution, a specific ask, a trackable metric, and a timeline. The atlas makes each one measurable year over year.
| Demand | Institution | Specific Ask | Atlas Metric | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Close the school-level gap | MMSD | School-by-school Black student CA target, annual reporting | School-level CA by race | Annual, 3-year |
| 2. Transit frequency in priority tracts | Madison Metro, Council | 15-min minimum headways serving 14 priority tracts | Transit frequency layer | Next service redesign |
| 3. Housing stability as education intervention | Dane County CDBG/HOME | Next allocation prioritizes 14 priority tracts | Housing cost burden + eviction rate | Next funding cycle |
| 4. Health access in HPSAs | City Health Dept, UW Health | Primary care expansion to HPSA tracts with high uninsured | Health access + uninsured rate | 18 months |
| 5. Fund the infrastructure | MCF, Evjue, RWJF, Spencer, W.T. Grant | Treat Atlas updates as grantable infrastructure investments | Atlas existence and update cadence | FY26–27 |
| 6. Boundary review and attendance zones | MMSD (Building for the Future 2025–27) | Ensure boundary changes do not concentrate poverty in fewer schools | School attendance zones + NARI overlay | 2025–27 process |
Demand 1 asks MMSD to set school-specific chronic absence targets for Black students and report annually. Aggregate district goals mask wide variation between schools. School-level accountability — visible in the atlas — creates the specificity required for intervention.
Demand 2 asks Madison Metro and the Common Council to guarantee 15-minute minimum headways in the 14 priority tracts. Transit access is the structural barrier most directly within municipal control. A single council vote during the next service redesign cycle can change the map.
Demand 3 asks Dane County to prioritize CDBG and HOME allocations toward the 14 priority tracts. Housing stability is the single greatest predictor of attendance nationally. CWD's affordable housing is attendance infrastructure — the atlas provides the evidence that every housing dollar in these tracts yields education outcomes.
Demand 4 asks the City Health Department and UW Health to expand primary care access in HPSA-designated tracts with high uninsured rates. Untreated illness is a direct cause of absence, and the priority tracts carry triple HPSA designations.
Demand 5 asks funders to treat the atlas itself as grantable infrastructure. An accountability tool that is not maintained becomes an artifact. Annual updates, additional data layers, and longitudinal tracking require sustained investment.
Demand 6 asks MMSD's Building for the Future 2025–27 boundary review to ensure that redrawn attendance zones do not concentrate poverty in fewer schools. The atlas's school attendance zone overlays, paired with NARI scores, provide the data to evaluate every proposed boundary change before it takes effect.
This is the first edition of the Madison Equity Atlas. It will not be the last. The gap documented here is not fixed — it is measured. Measurement is the beginning of accountability.
Methodology
NARI Composite Construction
The Neighborhood Attendance Risk Index (NARI) is an 8-indicator composite that ranks each of Dane County's 125 census tracts on structural risk to school attendance. The construction follows the established methodology of peer composite indices (CDC Social Vulnerability Index, Child Opportunity Index 3.0, Area Deprivation Index).
Indicators and Weights
| Indicator | Source | Weighting |
|---|---|---|
| Poverty Rate | ACS 5-Year | Empirical (Pearson r with CA) |
| % People of Color | ACS 5-Year | Empirical |
| Youth Population (<18) | ACS 5-Year | Empirical |
| Transit Frequency (AM peak trips/hr) | Madison Metro GTFS | Empirical (inverse) |
| Housing Cost Burden (%) | ACS B25106 | Empirical |
| Uninsured Rate (%) | ACS S2701 | Empirical |
| Eviction Filing Rate | Princeton Eviction Lab | Empirical |
| HPSA Designation (3-category) | HRSA | Empirical |
Normalization
Each indicator is percentile-normalized to a 0–100 scale before weighting. This prevents indicators measured on different scales from dominating the composite — a critical methodological requirement identified in the ADI literature (Health Affairs, 2024). Weights are derived from each indicator's empirical Pearson correlation with chronic absence rates across MMSD schools. The equal-weight version and the outcome-weighted version produce highly correlated tract rankings (r > 0.85), and the simpler equal-weight version is used in the primary display.
Tier Definitions
| Tier | NARI Score | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Critical | 80–100 | Highest structural risk; priority investment geography |
| Severe | 60–79 | High structural risk; active monitoring |
| Elevated | 40–59 | Moderate structural risk; emerging concern |
| Moderate | 20–39 | Below-average risk; standard monitoring |
| On-Track | 0–19 | Low structural risk; protective conditions present |
The 14 priority tracts are those scoring in the top two tiers (Critical or Severe) of the NARI composite. They are lettered A–N by descending NARI score for identification in maps and tables.
Data Limitations
All analyses are correlational. The atlas does not have experimental variation or a natural experiment. Outputs are framed as associations and model predictions, not causal claims. Grade-level breakdowns by demographic group are modeled from school-level averages mapped to grade bands; WISEdash reports grades and demographics as separate cross-tabs. Eviction data vintage (2015–2017) predates the pandemic and current filing patterns. The NARI composite is a relative ranking within Dane County and should not be compared numerically to indices from other geographies.
Update Commitment
CWD commits to annual atlas updates as new WISEdash and ACS data become available. Each update will re-rank tracts, update school-level statistics, and track year-over-year change in the 14 priority tracts. The atlas is designed to be a living accountability tool, not a one-time report.
Data sources: WI DPI WISEdash Certified Data (2024–25), U.S. Census ACS 5-Year (2022, 2023), Princeton Eviction Lab (2015–2017), HRSA HPSA designations (2026-Q1), Madison Metro GTFS (March 2026), Mapping Inequality / Univ. of Richmond (1938 HOLC), MMSD ArcGIS FeatureServer (2025–26 attendance boundaries).
Cross Tabulations
Source: WI DPI WISEdash Certified Data, 2024-25 · ACS 5-Year 2022
About the Madison Equity Atlas
Madison Equity Atlas
The Madison Equity Atlas integrates public datasets spanning school attendance, household income, racial composition, youth population, transit access, housing cost burden, health insurance coverage, eviction filing rates, and health care access across 125 census tracts and 54 schools in the Madison Metropolitan School District. It was developed by Common Wealth Development (CWD) to support data-driven decisions about affordable housing, youth programming, and community investment.
The atlas is designed around an emotional arc — a sequence of understanding that moves the reader from recognition through action:
| Stage | Experience |
|---|---|
| Recognition | "I recognize this city in the data." |
| Unsettlement | "I knew the gap existed. I did not know income doesn't explain it." |
| Specificity | "This is about real children at real addresses." |
| Agency | "I know what is being asked of me." |
| Resolve | "This is the beginning of a new accountability infrastructure." |
The atlas serves three audiences: policy makers who allocate public resources, funders who evaluate place-based investments, and community advocates who organize for change in specific neighborhoods. Each tab is designed to support these audiences with the data they need in the format they use.
Twenty-two data layers are organized across five categories: Demographics (income, race, youth, poverty), Education (attendance, chronic absence, homeless students), Housing (cost burden, eviction rates), Health (HPSA designation, uninsured rate, FQHC distance), and Transportation (transit frequency). The NARI composite synthesizes eight of these indicators into a single 0–100 risk score per tract — the layer that integrates them all.
Data Sources
| Dataset | Source | Vintage | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| School Attendance & Chronic Absence | WI DPI WISEdash Certified Data | 2024-25 | 54 MMSD schools |
| Household Income & Poverty | U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year | 2022 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Racial/Ethnic Composition | U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year | 2022 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Youth Population by Race | U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year | 2022 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Transit Frequency (AM Peak) | Madison Metro Transit GTFS | March 2026 | 1,681 stops / 125 tracts |
| Housing Cost Burden | U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year (B25106) | 2023 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Uninsured Rate | U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year (S2701) | 2023 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Census Tract Boundaries | U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line | 2022 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| MMSD School Locations | WI DPI GIS Open Data | 2024-25 | 54 schools |
| Eviction Filing Rates | Princeton Eviction Lab | 2015-2017 | 142 Dane County tracts |
| Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSA) | HRSA HPSA | 2026-Q1 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHC) | HRSA FQHC Sites | 2026-Q1 | 125 Dane County tracts |
| Homeless Student Counts | WI DPI WISEdash | 2024-25 | District-level (MMSD) |
| NARI Composite Index | CWD Research | 2026 | 125 Dane County tracts (8 indicators) |
| HOLC Redlining Grades | Mapping Inequality / Univ. of Richmond | 1938 | Madison, WI HOLC zones |
| School Attendance Zones | MMSD ArcGIS FeatureServer | 2025-26 | Elementary (30), middle (12), high school (6) attendance boundaries. Note: MMSD 2025-27 boundary review in progress. |
How to Use the Atlas
The atlas is designed for five use cases. Each represents a real decision point where the data changes what happens next.
Council member before a budget vote
Open the Atlas tab and select the NARI composite layer. Identify which of the 14 priority tracts fall within your district. Click any tract to see all 22 data layers for that neighborhood. Use the transit frequency and housing cost burden layers to evaluate whether proposed budget allocations reach the tracts with the highest structural risk. The Research tab provides the evidence narrative for floor statements.
Funder evaluating a place-based grant
Use the atlas to verify that a proposed investment geography aligns with documented need. The NARI composite score provides a single defensible metric for tract-level targeting. The Cross-Tabs tab shows how school-level outcomes vary by neighborhood context. Compare the applicant's target area against the 14 priority tracts to assess geographic precision.
Community organizer at a neighborhood meeting
Open the atlas on a shared screen. Select your neighborhood's census tract and walk through the layers: income, race, transit, eviction, health access. Each layer tells one part of the story. The NARI composite tells the whole story in a single number. Export the tract view as a PDF to distribute at the meeting. The data belongs to the community — the atlas makes it accessible.
Researcher building on findings
The Research tab documents completed analyses (RQ 1.2, RQ 1.5) and identifies open research questions (RQ 1.4, RQ 2.1–2.4). The Cross-Tabs tab provides the sortable cross-tabulations underlying the headline findings. All data sources are public and documented in the table above. Contact CWD for data partnership opportunities, particularly regarding the positive-deviance school analysis and the housing-to-attendance pathway study.
Anyone tracking year-over-year progress
Return to the atlas each year as updated data becomes available. The NARI composite will re-rank tracts annually. School-level chronic absence rates will update with each WISEdash release. The question to ask each year: are the 14 priority tracts improving, stable, or declining? Are the demands being met? The atlas is designed to answer these questions without requiring a new report.
Research Analyses
| Analysis | Method | Status | Finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| RQ 1.2: Income Threshold | Income-bin analysis + linear regression (51 schools) | Complete | $100K median income threshold; steepest CA decline below threshold; 8.8% poverty tipping point |
| RQ 1.4: School Outlier Analysis | OLS residual ranking (school CA vs. tract demographics) | In Progress | Identifies positive-deviance schools beating neighborhood predictions on Black student CA |
| RQ 1.5: Race/Income Proxy | Partial correlation + segmented analysis (44 schools) | Complete | 25.8pp Black-White gap persists after controlling for income (95% CI: 25.07–34.77pp) |
| RQ 2.1: Transit Access | Correlation of tract-level transit frequency with school CA rates | Data Acquired | Transit frequency layer integrated; formal analysis write-up needed for policy brief |
| RQ 2.2: Childcare Deserts | Childcare desert designation vs. elementary CA rates | Data Acquired | Childcare provider data acquired (HIFLD + DCF); analysis integrated into viewer |
| RQ 2.3: Housing Instability | Housing cost burden + eviction rates vs. school CA | Data Acquired | Housing and eviction data integrated; CWD portfolio proximity analysis still needed |
| RQ 2.4: Health Access | HPSA designation + uninsured rate vs. CA beyond economic status | Data Acquired | All three HPSA categories integrated; uninsured rates mapped; formal write-up needed |
Note: RQ 1.5 uses a school-level proxy, not a true race x income cross-tab. See Analysis tab for full methodology and caveats. All analyses are correlational.
NARI Composite Construction
The Neighborhood Attendance Risk Index (NARI) synthesizes eight structural indicators into a single 0–100 score per census tract, following the established methodology of peer composite indices.
Eight Indicators
Normalization
Each indicator is percentile-normalized to 0–100 before weighting. Weights are derived from each indicator's Pearson correlation with chronic absence rates across MMSD schools.
Tier Definitions
Validation
The NARI composite is validated against school-level chronic absence rates. The equal-weight and outcome-weighted versions produce highly correlated tract rankings (r > 0.85). The 14 priority tracts (Critical and Severe tiers) concentrate the highest structural risk and the highest chronic absence rates in the district. Peer indices (CDC SVI, COI 3.0, ADI) use the same percentile-normalization approach.
Release History
v2.0 (March 2026): Public launch as Madison Equity Atlas. Added HOLC redlining overlay (1938 grades from Mapping Inequality), NARI composite as default map layer, editorial landing panel with research narrative, expanded Research tab with pipeline analysis and positive-deviance framing, per-map PNG export, school attendance zone overlays (elementary, middle, high), and MMSD Building for the Future boundary review context.
v1.0 (March 2026): Initial MMSD Community & Youth Equity Data Viewer (YABIR) with 6 tabs, 13 data layers, 7 research analyses, income threshold and race-income proxy findings as headline cards, sortable cross-tabulations across 10 demographic dimensions, and interactive choropleth mapping with school overlays.
Acknowledgments
The Madison Equity Atlas was developed by Common Wealth Development (CWD). The atlas draws on public data from the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, the U.S. Census Bureau, HRSA, Madison Metro Transit, the Princeton Eviction Lab, and the University of Richmond's Mapping Inequality project. CWD acknowledges the families and communities in south and east Madison whose lived experience these data represent. The atlas exists to make their conditions visible, measurable, and actionable.
Contact
Common Wealth Development (CWD)
Madison, Wisconsin
Building community equity through housing, data, and advocacy.